Gareth Barry predicts when Erling Haaland could eventually leave Manchester City

Erling Haaland may have committed his long-term future to Manchester City, but Gareth Barry believes the Norwegian striker will eventually leave the Etihad. The former City midfielder does not expect an immediate transfer push. Instead, he sees the next two seasons as potentially decisive, with City’s success in England and Europe likely to influence Haaland’s thinking.

Haaland remains under contract until 2034 and is firmly at the heart of City’s attack. However, Barry believes a long contract alone cannot guarantee that the 26-year-old will remain in Manchester throughout the agreement.

Haaland’s future could depend on City’s success

Since joining Manchester City in 2022, Haaland has quickly become one of the most prolific scorers in the club’s history. He has scored 162 goals in 200 appearances across all competitions and played a central role in City’s historic Treble-winning campaign in 2022-23.

City extended his stay with a long-term contract in 2024, giving the club control of the striker’s future well into the next decade. Yet Barry believes Haaland’s ambitions could eventually take him elsewhere if City’s competitive edge begins to fade.

Speaking to GOAL, Barry said he considers a future departure inevitable.

The former England international does not expect Haaland to force the issue while City remain capable of challenging for major honours. Unlike some players who publicly agitate for transfers, Barry believes Haaland is likely to remain professional and patient.

The key factor, in his view, will be whether City continue winning trophies.

If the club’s dominance starts to decline and silverware becomes harder to secure, speculation over Haaland’s future is likely to intensify. Barry believes that would be a natural development for a player approaching the prime years of a relatively short football career.

Haaland would also have plenty of opportunities if he eventually decides to move on. Given his status as one of the world’s leading strikers, Barry expects interest from clubs across the globe.

The next two seasons could shape the decision

Barry’s prediction is not based on Haaland wanting to leave Manchester immediately. Instead, he believes the striker’s decision could depend heavily on what happens over the next year or two.

City’s competitiveness in both the Premier League and Europe will be particularly important.

The club is already going through significant changes. Pep Guardiola has left after his long spell in charge, with Enzo Maresca now beginning a new era at Manchester City. Rodri has also departed, taking with him one of the most influential players in the team’s midfield.

Those changes have raised questions about whether City can quickly return to the level of dominance they enjoyed in previous seasons.

For Haaland, that could matter as much as the length of his contract. If City continue competing for the biggest trophies, there may be little incentive for him to consider a move. If their standing begins to weaken, however, the possibility of seeking a new challenge could become much more attractive.

Barry backs Arsenal to lead the Premier League

Barry is also skeptical about City’s chances of reclaiming the Premier League title in the immediate future.

City have now gone two seasons without winning the competition, with Liverpool and Arsenal taking the domestic crown during that period. Barry, who helped City win their first Premier League title in 2011-12, believes the departure of Rodri makes their task even harder.

He argued that even before Rodri’s exit, City’s managerial changes would have made it difficult to close the gap on Arsenal. With Rodri now gone, Barry believes City have become less of a threat to the current favourites.

He still expects the club to strengthen, with one or two additions potentially helping Elliot Anderson and the other midfielders cope with the loss of Rodri. Even so, he does not believe those moves will necessarily be enough to make City favourites for the title.

Barry has Arsenal as the clear team to beat.

He also expects other clubs to improve, while predicting progress from Chelsea after their failure to qualify for the Champions League. Manchester United and Aston Villa, meanwhile, could find the demands of European football challenging.

Despite his concerns, Barry still believes City could finish second. His expectation, however, is that they will be less of a threat than they were last season and that the gap to Arsenal could be significant.

Real Madrid and Barcelona remain possible destinations

Should Haaland eventually decide that his time at City is coming to an end, Spain is likely to remain one of the most prominent destinations discussed.

Real Madrid have long been associated with Europe’s biggest attacking names, and Haaland has repeatedly been linked with a potential move to the Santiago Bernabéu. Barcelona are another possible destination, particularly as they consider their long-term options at centre-forward beyond Robert Lewandowski.

The speculation is not new. Haaland’s status as one of Europe’s elite strikers has naturally kept him connected with both Spanish giants, and those links could become stronger if Manchester City’s competitive level declines.

A move to Real Madrid was even included in the platform of former presidential candidate Enrique Riquelme, who promised to sign Haaland if he won the club’s election. Riquelme did not win, leaving Haaland’s situation unchanged.

For now, there is no indication that Haaland is actively trying to leave Manchester City. His contract until 2034 also gives City considerable security over one of the most valuable players in world football.

Barry’s point is that the contract may ultimately be less important than the circumstances surrounding it.

If City remain among the leading contenders for the Premier League and Europe’s biggest prizes, Haaland has strong reasons to stay. But if the trophies begin to disappear and City’s dominance continues to weaken, the striker could have a different calculation to make.

At 26, with extraordinary numbers already behind him and his prime years still ahead, Haaland’s next two seasons could be particularly important. They may help determine whether his long-term future remains at the Etihad or whether, eventually, a new challenge becomes the more attractive option.